Yes on 2 for a reasonable rainy day fund

Prop 2 is a state constitutional amendment that would set new rules for how the state must save money to even out fluctuations in the state budget. It changes rules set by Prop 58 from 2004 (Schwarzenegger's rainy day fund & budget rules), which was also a constitutional amendment. Since any change to the rainy day fund has to be a constitutional amendment, my normal objections to them don't apply.


I would like California to do a better job of smoothing out its boom-bust budget cycles, and it looks like this measure would help with that. I also like that it requires the state to pay down its debts a little faster, because that should reduce the overall cost of those debts and hopefully free up more funds to be used for actual services.

The opposition ballot argument -- focused entirely on school funding -- is not convincing. A long analysis by the highly-trusted California Budget Project explains that Prop 2 is unlikely to have a significant effect on school financing.

More troubling are two other concerns I also glean from the CBP analysis. One is that Prop 2 will make an already complex budget process even more complex. Second is that Prop 2 will further reduce lawmakers' flexibility in spending money. I generally feel we should trust our lawmakers more, not less. This latter concern appears to be the main objection of the progressive voices opposed to Prop 2, such as ACCE Action (formerly ACORN). But I can't find a good explanation of this opposition -- nothing on ACCE's website, and the articles I can find are just not convincing.

But my read of CBP's analysis is that Prop 2 might reduce that lawmaker's flexibility in good times, but it may also result in having a larger rainy day fund when times are tough. If that had been true in the Great Recession, perhaps we would've been able to avoid some of the draconian cuts in services the state imposed then. So I'm concerned, but not enough to definitely vote against it.

The tipping point is the widespread support. The legislature voted unanimously to put Prop 2 on the ballot. Lots of newspapers endorse it (e.g., LA Times, SF Chronicle). And the clincher is that the League of Women Voters endorses Prop 2.